$2.3B out / $3.1B in
In 2025, U.S. goods exports to Jordan reached $2.3B and imports $3.1B (U.S. Census Bureau).
- Current data
- Census
Concept proposal · Illustrative scenario
Economic Impact
Every figure on this page is an illustrative scenario built from disclosed inputs and visible arithmetic. None is a commitment, a forecast, or a result. The scenarios are deliberately modeled below published program benchmarks, and their categories are never summed into one headline.
How to read this page
Labels, formulas, and the scenario line
Each table shows its formula, every input with its label, and three cases — conservative, base, and ambitious. Inputs drawn from official statistics are linked to their register row; judgment-based rates carry an estimate label; arithmetic outputs carry a calculated label. The wage-income line of the Talent Network is labeled as a household effect — it is not a trade flow and not a component of any trade total.
Scenario estimate — not a commitment, not a forecast. سيناريو تقديري — ليس التزامًا وليس توقّعًا.
The full register of inputs, their sources, and their verification status is on the Research and Evidence page.
Modesty by design
Scale against the real denominators
The combined base case is roughly $10M per year in measurable flows — about 0.16% of U.S. imports from Jordan — and this figure is shown only with the explicit qualifier that it assumes all initiatives achieve their base-case assumptions simultaneously. Scenario categories (exports, services revenue, household wage income, committed capital) are never summed into one headline.
$1.6B
Jordan attracted $1.6B in FDI in 2024 (UNCTAD/State Dept).
- Current data
- UNCTAD
The two cards above are the sanity anchors: the export scenarios are stated as a share of actual U.S. goods imports from Jordan, and the capital scenarios as a share of Jordan's actual FDI inflows. Honest modesty is the strategy — a concept that overclaims would not survive the diligence of the readers it is written for.
Per-initiative scenarios
Four lenses, never one total
Business Gateway — incremental exports
Assisted firms × conversion rate × average incremental sales per exporter = incremental exports per year — illustrative scenario, not a forecast.
| Line | CONSERVATIVE | BASE | AMBITIOUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Firms assisted per year Target | 25 | 50 | 100 |
| Conversion assisted → exporting Estimate | 40% | 50% | 60% |
| Average incremental U.S. sales per exporter per year Estimate | $100K | $200K | $350K |
| Incremental exports per year Calculated | $1.0M | $5.0M | $21.0M |
| Five-year cumulative (linear ramp factor 3.5×) Calculated | $3.5M | $17.5M | $73.5M |
| Program cost per year Estimate | $0.5M | $1.0M | $2.0M |
| Leverage (exports per $1 cost) Calculated | $2.0 | $5.0 | $10.5 |
External reference points
- Official U.S. figures cite growth of more than 1,200% since the FTA (trade.gov). External reference points only; the Bridge has achieved nothing and claims no benchmark results.
Modeled below published STEP-attributed rates (self-reported, discounted for first-time exporters). The assisted-to-exporter conversion rate is the weakest input and is disclosed as judgment.
Diaspora Investment Network — capital committed
Engaged investors × conversion × average ticket = capital committed per year — illustrative scenario, not a forecast.
| Line | CONSERVATIVE | BASE | AMBITIOUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Qualified investors engaged per year Target | 100 | 300 | 600 |
| Conversion engaged → committed Estimate | 5% | 8% | 10% |
| Average commitment Estimate | $25K | $50K | $100K |
| Capital committed per year Calculated | $125K | $1.2M | $6.0M |
| FDI realized (60% haircut on commitments) Calculated | $75K/yr | $0.72M/yr | $3.6M/yr |
| Network cost per year Estimate | $0.3M | $0.6M | $1.0M |
| Leverage Calculated | $0.4 | $2.0 | $6.0 |
External reference points
- Jordan attracted $1.6B in FDI in 2024 (UNCTAD/State Dept). Base case equals under 0.1% of Jordan's actual 2024 FDI inflows — the sanity anchor.
No securities are offered; co-investment would run only through licensed SPV platforms. Committed capital is not realized FDI and is never presented as such.
Digital & Professional Services Hub — services revenue and direct jobs
Clients × average contract value = services revenue; revenue ÷ $72K revenue-per-employee = direct jobs — illustrative scenario, not a forecast.
| Line | CONSERVATIVE | BASE | AMBITIOUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. clients at maturity Target | 10 | 25 | 50 |
| Average annual contract value Estimate | $80K | $150K | $300K |
| Revenue per employee Calculated | $72K | $72K | $72K |
| Services revenue per year Calculated | $0.8M | $3.75M | $15.0M |
| Direct jobs in Jordan Calculated | 11 | 52 | 208 |
| Hub cost per year Estimate | $0.6M | $1.0M | $1.8M |
| Leverage Calculated | $1.3 | $3.75 | $8.3 |
External reference points
- ICT export figures range from ~$48M (World Bank balance-of-payments, 2024) to ~$225M (GIZ sector estimate, 2019) depending on methodology. Any percentage of ICT exports must name its denominator because of the $48M–$225M methodology conflict.
- …a market projected to grow from ~$7B to ~$18B by 2033 (Grand View Research — industry estimate). Market context is an industry estimate class.
Merged with the Health Corridor's RCM leg into one pilot, gated on two to three diaspora-linked lighthouse contracts.
Talent Network — placements and household wage income
Placements per year × $25K remote-role premium = incremental household wage income — illustrative scenario, not a forecast.
| Line | CONSERVATIVE | BASE | AMBITIOUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Placements per year at maturity Estimate | 50 | 150 | 400 |
| Remote-role wage premium used for modeling Estimate | $25K | $25K | $25K |
| Salary anchors (context) | U.S. software engineers average ~$135K vs ~$11–39K in Jordan (salary aggregators, 2025). | ||
| Incremental household wage income per year Calculated Household effect — not a trade flow | $1.25M | $3.75M | $10M |
| Research/startup partnerships over five years Target | 5 | 15 | 40 |
| Cost per year Estimate | $0.15M | $0.3M | $0.5M |
External reference points
- Scotland's GlobalScot took two decades to reach ~1,000 volunteer members — small and curated is the model. The model's calibration: small, curated, demand-driven networks.
Household effect — not a trade flow, not GDP. This label is mandatory wherever the wage-income line appears.
The never-summed rule. Exports, services revenue, household wage income, and committed capital measure different things with different beneficiaries and different confidence. They appear only in separate tables, and any reference to their joint scale carries the qualifier that it assumes all initiatives achieve their base-case assumptions simultaneously. There is no combined-impact figure on this site.
Methodology
Conventions behind the arithmetic
- All scenarios describe annual steady state at program maturity, with five-year cumulative figures computed from a linear ramp.
- Benchmark transfer is deliberately discounted: published program returns that are self-attributed are never carried across at face value, and the discount is disclosed rather than hidden.
- Committed capital is not realized investment; a haircut separates the two, following the announced-versus-realized pattern documented for comparable programs.
- Direct jobs are modeled only where a revenue-per-employee basis exists; no economy-wide jobs multiplier is applied anywhere on this site.
- Wage-income effects are labeled as household effects and excluded from any trade or investment total.
Limitations
What the model cannot do
The scenario framework is honest about its weak points, because they are the points a diligent reader would find first:
- The conversion rate from assisted firm to exporter is judgment, not data; no comparable program publishes it cleanly. It is the single weakest input on this page.
- The durability of new exporters — how many still export three years later — is unknown and not modeled.
- The share of Jordan's remittances that originates in the United States cannot be reliably split from Gulf-dominated flows, so no remittance-redirection scenario is quantified.
- ICT export figures range from ~$48M (World Bank balance-of-payments, 2024) to ~$225M (GIZ sector estimate, 2019) depending on methodology. Any statement about a share of ICT exports therefore depends on the denominator named.
- Business-process outsourcing billing rates could not be verified in the research pass and carry estimate labels without a direct source.
The research record behind these limitations, including every source consulted, is on the Research and Evidence page. The modeled cost lines in the tables are program-design estimates, not budgets; no funding exists — see the Governance page.